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The RMB Exchange Rate Has Risen To Break The 6.40
- Jan 27, 2018 -

The RMB exchange rate has risen to break the 6.40 pass rate, which is a double-edged sword to import and export. 2018-01-27 09:01:28: Tan Zhijuan: Source: China business network review: since the beginning of 02018, the RMB appreciation against the US dollar has continued to rise, which has attracted the attention of the global market. The most recent discussion of the foreign trade group in the Chinese business newspaper is the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. "I accept 50 thousand dollars in RMB exchange rate 6.7, and now it is 6.4, and this speed is changing too fast." The head of a Ningbo foreign trade enterprise exclamations in the WeChat foreign trade group. In January 22nd, the intermediate price of the RMB against the dollar was 6.4112, which rose by 57 basis points from the previous trading day, a new high since December 8, 2015. Then, in January 24th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3916, which is the first time to break the 6.4 pass since December 7, 2015, and also the highest since December 4, 2015. And the onshore and offshore renminbi dollar recently both broke the 6.4 mark, entered a "6.3 times", were a record high of more than two years. The influence of RMB appreciation on import and export enterprises is different, and the trend of subsequent markets is concerned by foreign trade enterprises. The appreciation of the renminbi and dollar devaluation experts interviewed believe that since the opening, one of the main reasons for the continued appreciation of the renminbi is due to the sharp depreciation of the dollar. Golden State Securities chief macroeconomic analyst told reporters in January 25th of the spring side, at the beginning of 2018 this period of time the sharp appreciation of the RMB, the main reason is the sharp depreciation of the dollar; in addition, gradual decline in 2017 foreign exchange deficit, also means that the market fell to the expected devaluation of the RMB, foreign exchange capital also confirmed from negative to positive the outflow gradually tends to balance, the RMB exchange rate formation support; furthermore, gradually opening up the capital market China relative valuation advantage and capital market, attract foreign capital inflows, increased the demand of rmb. Therefore, in his view, the superposition of these three factors has pushed up the continuous appreciation of the RMB.  From the state securities statistics show that in the beginning of 2018 to January 24th, the dollar index fell nearly 3.5% against the US dollar by more than 2.8%; at the same time, the appreciation of the euro to RMB 0.95%, RMB appreciation of 2.16% pounds, it is illustrated that the value of the yuan also benefit non US currency revaluation of the dollar rise. Trump, chief analyst of FXTM fortune China, also told reporters that "the sharp rebound of the RMB comes mainly from three aspects: first, the conservatism introduced by us, which needs a weaker dollar to support the return of the business. The euro, pound and the Australian dollar is at the beginning of the RMB exchange rate rebounded sharply, with a basket of currencies for reference to follow a rebound; secondly, China economy in 2017 remained strong, and not worry about the 2016 "soft landing", the market confidence in the China economy; again is the central bank controls the exchange rate is still very effective, 2015 and 2016 foreign exchange outflow, but in 2017 basically for 11 consecutive months is increasing, foreign exchange reserves to $3 trillion and 100 billion, foreign capital is still very abundant, the market still has great confidence in the renminbi." When does the trend of RMB appreciation appear? Zhong pointed out that unless the above three major factors supporting the strengthening of the renminbi have changed, they still remain strong. Bian Quan believes that the US dollar index may still rise moderately in 2018, because the market is not Hawking enough for the fed to raise interest rate, and is too optimistic about the expectations of the ECB's monetary tightening. This will lead to the potential difference in the future that may change in the future, which will lead to a stronger dollar and a weaker euro. He also pointed out that the important time for attention in the future is probably the US debt ceiling negotiations in early February, the March Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and the announcement date of the US's non farm employment report. For the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS, has recently adjusted the forecast for the RMB to the US dollar from 6.7 to 6.4 by the end of 2018. She still thinks that in the next few years, the central bank will maintain a relatively stable exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies, while the exchange rate of RMB to the US dollar will depend more on the trend of the US dollar. It is expected that the US trade deficit will continue to expand, which may bring further pressure on the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate. But officials say the future of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will become a normal state. When it comes to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate issue, the national foreign exchange bureau spokesman, BOP Secretary Wang Chunying in January 18th in the State Information Office press conference that has the relationship between the recent appreciation of the renminbi and the economy continues to improve internal and external factors such as relatively weak dollar.